Actor Awards 2026 Preview: Breaking Down SAG’s Top Film and TV Contenders

The newly remaned Actor Awards — formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards — are set for March 1, streaming live on Netflix, with nominations being announced on Jan. 7. Eligible performances of both film and television must debut in the 2025 calendar year, between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31. The awards show has the largest voting body with more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers voting. Here’s an analysis of some of the top races.

FILM

Group Effort

One of the most notable factors that sets the Actor Awards apart from many awards shows is the inclusion of the ensemble category, recognizing the work of the entire cast for a film. Generally, this award comprises films that have actors pegged as frontrunners for individual nominations. That bodes well for contenders like “Bugonia,” “Hamnet,” “Jay Kelly,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” “The Smashing Machine,” “Song Sung Blue” and “Wicked: For Good.” And if you believe Amy Madigan is going to make the cut in supporting female actor, one could even make a case for the talented cast of “Weapons.”

But individual noms aren’t necessary; both “Black Panther” and “Parasite” took home the prize with no individual nominations. That is good news for movies packed with robust casts where several actors get to shine such as “Nouvelle Vague,” “Nuremberg,” “Rental Family” and “Train Dreams.” There’s also the filmed version of “Merrily We Roll Along” — and SAG-AFTRA  voters love a musical. That’s not to say those films couldn’t score individual noms but might be viewed more as ensemble pieces.

Competing Co-stars in Supporting

There are several films that could land multiple nominations for their actors in the same category. While Teyana Taylor seems a sure thing for “One Battle,” don’t count out Regina Hall. Both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas shine in “Sentimental Value” and Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion have heavy support for “Marty Supreme.” And “Sinners” features an embarrassment of riches in the category, particularly with Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku in standout roles. Others to keep an eye on in the supporting female actor category include the aforementioned Madigan for “Weapons,” Emily Blunt in “The Smashing Machine,” Glenn Close in “Wake Up Dead Man” and Jennifer Lopez in “Kiss of the Spider Woman.” And of course, expected to return to the category after her nomination last year is Ariana Grande for “Wicked: For Good.”

In the male actor in a supporting role category, it’s likely that “One Battle” will also have Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro going head-to-head. And while Adam Sandler is looking secure for “Jay Kelly,” don’t underestimate his co-star Billy Crudup, who shines in one scene (and earns extra points for playing an actor most voters will relate to). Similarly, Paul Mescal looks secure for “Hamnet” but there’s also his on-screen son played by Jacobi Jupe. Only “Sentimental Value” star Stellan Skarsgård feels like a sure thing on his own while other possibilities include “Wicked: For Good” player Jonathan Bailey, who scored a nom here earlier this year for the same role, Jacob Elordi as the titular “Frankenstein,” Delroy Lindo in “Sinners” and Jeremy Strong in “Deliver Me From Nowhere.” And keep an eye on another performance that has been building momentum recently, an actor beloved by his peers — Mark Hamill in “Life of Chuck.”

In the Lead

A lot of previous nominees and winners are likely to fill out the leading categories. In male lead, that includes Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle,” Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme,” George Clooney in “Jay Kelly” and Hugh Jackman in “Song Sung Blue.” Also keep watch on Brendan Fraser in “Rental Family,” Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon,” Russell Crowe and Rami Malek in “Nuremberg” and Jesse Plemons in “Bugonia.” There’s also Oscar Isaac in “Frankenstein” and Jeremy Allen White in “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” — both have been nominated or won for their TV work, but could be set to land their first film nod. Newcomers scoring their first individual noms could include Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners” (a previous Actor Award winner for “The Black Panther” ensemble), Dwayne Johnson in “The Smashing Machine,” Wagner Moura in “The Secret Agent” and Joel Edgerton in “Train Dreams.”

On the female actor side, return nominees will likely include Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet,” Cynthia Erivo in “Wicked: For Good,” Kate Hudson in “Song Sung Blue” and Emma Stone in “Bugonia.” Likely to join them is Renate Reinsve for “Sentimental Value.” It’s hard to believe she’s never landed an individual nom, but Rose Byrne could snare her first for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” And “One Battle” lead Chase Infiniti could find herself nominated for her film debut. Voters also love seeing actors transform and are more apt to seek out smaller films regardless of box office, so keep tabs on Sydney Sweeney for “Christy” and Lucy Liu for “Rosemead.”

TELEVISION

Emmys Switch Up

While the Actor Awards often mirror a lot of what the Emmys did in terms of nominations and winners, there are a few key differences this time around. In the drama category, in addition to “The Pitt,” “Severance” and “The White Lotus” is “The Morning Show,” which wasn’t eligible during the Emmys window, leaving possibilities for Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Greta Lee, Billy Crudup and so on. The third season of “The Gilded Age,” which also wasn’t eligible at the last Emmys, is eligible for the Actor. But with so many giant ensembles, this is where the lack of supporting TV categories comes into major play — a place where all aforementioned shows could really benefit.

“Pluribus,” the latest Vince Gilligan series led by Rhea Seehorn, is also eligible and making quite a splash. While Seehorn was constantly overlooked by the Emmys during her run on “Better Call Saul,” she was nominated multiple times by SAG-AFTRA voters, and could be one to look out for.

Saving one of the biggest for last is the addition of “Stranger Things.” The show hasn’t aired since 2022 but with all episodes of its fifth and final season out by Dec. 31 — the finale dropping on New Year’s Eve and even hitting theaters — that means the massive cast is eligible in the drama actor and actress categories. The cast was nominated for TV ensemble for the first three seasons, but only took home the trophy for the first. Although Season 4 landed just a single nomination (and win) for stunt performance, it’s likely safe to bet that will change with the final season. Stars Millie Bobby Brown, David Harbour and Winona Ryder have all landed acting nominations in the past.

Not So Limited

In the limited series category, “Adolescence” swept at the Emmys — and could do the same at the Actor Awards. Of course, this is another place that the lack of a supporting category comes into play, placing Stephen Graham against Owen Cooper.

“Monster: The Ed Gein Story” stars Charlie Hunnam and Laurie Metcalf are also expected to break into the race. Sticking with the true crime theme, there’s also “Murdaugh: Death in the Family” (which saw incredible performances by both Patricia Arquette and Jason Clarke) and “Devil in Disguise: John Wayne Gacy,” in which Michael Chernus disturbingly shined.

Seeing Double

This year could see many double nominees — something that’s not new for the show. Last year, Kathy Bates was nominated for both the drama actress category for “Matlock” and limited series/TV movie actress for “The Great Lillian Hall.”

Carrie Coon could see something similar this year — but both in the drama actress category, thanks to her key roles in “The White Lotus” and “The Gilded Age.”

This year will likely see one big crossover between film and television, with Jeremy Allen White. While “The Bear” didn’t take home a single win from its 13 Emmys nominations, the leading man still snagged a nom, and it’s very likely he will do the same at the Actor Awards.

View this article at Variety.